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Hi Taylor
- As I suffer through another heatwave, I remember reading something
about how weather affects the economy. Aside from people using the
A/C more, do you know what weather conditions affect the markets?
Hi Lilly - When you study the markets enough, you can definitely
see seasonal and weather-related trends. More than that, you can just
imagine the cost associated with the delays and destruction caused
by severe weather. Sometimes the losses are so big they're hard to
fathom. I think about this stuff on both a micro and macro level,
which might make things clearer for you. |
1.
Micro effects.
Like you said, we have to run our A/C through the summer. Everyone
remembers a couple winters back when the news was all about Texas
residents paying $7,000 for a week of electricity during that
intense freeze. That's an exceptional example, but you can see
how temperature changes cost individuals money. In addition, people
have to contend with conditions that make it harder to do their
work. If it's too hot or too cold, people struggle to keep their
crops alive; ranchers have to pull out all the stops to keep their
livestock healthy. If there's too much snow and ice, people can't
drive to work. Depending on the industry, a bad storm can be a
huge setback.
2. Macro effects. This is the stuff we hear about but have
more trouble comprehending because the numbers are enormous and
only loosely tied to our realities. For example, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says extreme weather events
cost the U.S. $165 billion in 2022. That's a lot of money! It's
such a big number that it hardly makes sense. But when you think
about a hurricane forcing people to shut down stores and evacuate,
then that community/city/state has to rebuild homes and stores
after the storm rolls through, it makes a little more sense. Between
insurance payouts, the municipal costs for cleanup, and the personal
losses, bad weather can obviously shake up the economy.
3. Seasonal effects. Obviously, the macro lens shows how high
the losses can be. It's also useful to think about how things
are impacted at different times of the year. We're dealing with
heat waves right now, which can lead to blackouts. If a beach
town or lakeside community can't use the electrical grid, it's
going to be hard to get money from all those summer tourists looking
to buy stuff. Similarly, winter storms end up grounding a lot
of planes. If a bad enough storm hits right around Thanksgiving
or Christmas, that comes at massive losses to the airlines, the
hotels, and everyone else who counts on that seasonal travel.
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To date, bad
weather hasn't caused a market fallout the same way the housing crisis
or Covid did. It's hard to imagine a catastrophe that big. Still,
it's not hard to see how those billions of dollars add up when you
think about all of the weather events that happen throughout the year.
Hope this helps, Lilly. Stay cool out there! |
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